What a whale accumulation signal is

An accumulation signal fires when, over 4 hours, more of the tracked whale wallets end up long a coin than short it, by at least six wallets. It counts wallets, not dollars. It ends when the wallets behind it leave the trade.

Last 30 days: 35 signals fired. 29 have ended, 18 of them in profit (62.1%, median +1.14%). Graded hit rates and edge per band are on the track record.

How the count works

Every 5 minutes DexiScan stores a snapshot of every open position the tracked wallets hold. A signal only looks at two of them: the first and the last snapshot of the window. Each wallet is compared coin by coin between the two.

• Opened or added to a long: one vote for the long side.
• Opened or added to a short: one vote for the short side.
• Closed a position: one vote against the side it closed.
• Only trimmed: logged, but left out of the count.

Size is measured in coins, not in dollars, so a price move on its own never shows up as buying. Positions worth less than $1,000 are ignored. A wallet with no snapshot at one end of the window is skipped, because missing data is not the same as being flat.

When it posts

• 10 wallets or more net on one side: strong.
• 6 to 9: moderate. Six is the bar for posting to members.
• 3 to 5: weak. Never posted, but tracked and graded, so the bar of six can itself be checked.

Every wallet counts once, whatever its size. A $50M position weighs the same as a $50k one, so no single account can fire a signal on its own.

How it ends

The exit rule is set the moment the signal fires. DexiScan keeps checking the wallets that made it: a wallet still holding counts in full, a heavy trim counts half, a full close counts zero. When that retention drops under 60% the signal is marked WEAKENING. Under 30% it is INVALIDATED and the exit price is frozen. A newer wave on the opposite side of the same coin also ends it, and so does a time cap.

4h and 8h

The same count also runs on an 8-hour window. Those signals are graded on the track record but not posted.

What it cannot see

Anything that happens between the two snapshots. A wallet that opens and closes inside the window counts as nothing. Whale sentiment walks every snapshot in between and does see that churn, which is why the two can disagree on size while they should still agree on direction.

Every signal older than 48 hours is on the public signal archive with its outcome. Members get them live on Discord.