Learn · Signals
How whale sentiment is measured
Whale sentiment answers two questions per coin and window. Did the tracked wallets put more net dollars into longs or into shorts? And are they adding risk or taking it off? The answer is one of six verdicts.
The six verdicts
- STRONG BUY and BUY: whales adding longs, net of what they closed.
- SELL and STRONG SELL: whales adding shorts, net.
- CAUTION: whales taking profit, covering or derisking. It warns about positions that already exist, so it is not a neutral reading.
- NEUTRAL: nothing readable in the window.
It runs on 1h, 4h, 12h and 24h windows. The 1h reading is stored and graded but never posted.
What goes into it
The accumulation signal compares only the two ends of a window. Sentiment walks every 5-minute snapshot pair inside it and adds up each wallet's change on each side, in coins. Every coin is priced at one reference mark, so two wallets are never valued at different prices.
Then each wallet is netted per side. A wallet that ended up adding is an adder, one that ended up cutting is a cutter, and a wallet whose net change is tiny counts on neither side.
The trend score is direction only. One wallet adding $50k long scores +1 just like fifty wallets adding $50M, so it is always read next to the dollar amounts and the wallet count.
How the verdict is picked
- Derisking comes first. When far more size is being closed than opened, the verdict is CAUTION whatever the direction.
- Then direction. BUY or SELL needs the trend score past a threshold, a minimum of net dollars added and a minimum number of wallets on that side. STRONG needs more of both.
- A busy tape, where a lot of size trades but little of it stays, drops the verdict one step.
- Lighter profit-taking still reads CAUTION.
- Anything else is NEUTRAL.
Does it predict anything?
A verdict says what whales did, not what price will do next. Each window is graded as a signal of its own. The table below is the current state.
| Window | Calls | Hit rate | Benchmark | Hit-rate verdict | Edge | Edge verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whale sentiment, 1h window | 1,603 | 52.7% | 50.1% | UNPROVEN | — | |
| Whale sentiment, 4h window | 1,338 | 51.5% | 50.0% | UNPROVEN | +0.046σ | UNPROVEN |
| Whale sentiment, 12h window | 1,047 | 51.7% | 50.0% | UNPROVEN | +0.054σ | UNPROVEN |
| Whale sentiment, 24h window | 814 | 50.4% | 49.9% | UNPROVEN | +0.042σ | UNPROVEN |
One big wallet can carry a whole coin's reading. DexiScan measures how concentrated the adding is for exactly that reason, and the coin pages show how many wallets sit on each side.
Members see sentiment live. Each coin page shows the verdict 48 hours later, next to what price did after.