Why a hit rate needs a base rate

Say price went up on 58% of the days in a sample. A signal that calls long every single day hits 58% with zero skill. A hit rate only means something next to the rate the market would have handed out anyway.

On the current track record: the population base rate at 4h is 50.3% over 16,714 calls. 0 of 14 scored signal types beat their 4h benchmark. Every row is on the track record.

The benchmark

For every graded call, DexiScan works out what the same call would have scored from market drift alone: the market's own chance of going up over the same rows, flipped for short calls. So a short is not punished for fighting an uptrend, and a long gets no credit for riding one.

Lift is the hit rate minus that benchmark, in percentage points. It is the only number on the track record worth acting on, and only when its interval clears zero.

The population base rate

There is a second reference. The scanner reads every coin the cohort trades and stays NEUTRAL on most of them. The population base rate is the hit rate across all of those rows, signal or no signal. Emitted signals alone cannot give you this number, because they are only the rows the rules chose to speak about.

When a lift counts

A few points of lift on a few dozen calls is noise. DexiScan puts a 95% interval around every hit rate and only says BEATS when the whole interval sits above the benchmark. When the interval crosses the benchmark, the verdict is UNPROVEN, however good the headline number looks.

Calls that overlap in time are near-duplicates. A signal that fires every hour against a 24h horizon produces rows that overlap about 24 times over. Counting them as independent would shrink the interval for no reason, so the bootstrap resamples whole days instead of single calls.

Checking any signal provider

The same questions work on anyone selling signals. What was the base rate over the same period? How many independent days of calls sit behind the number? Is every call published, losers included? If a provider cannot answer, the hit rate on the banner tells you nothing.